Glimpsing Queensland’s future climate

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Climate projections are computer model simulations of the climate. We use them to understand how the world’s climate will respond to the rapid increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with human activities.

The projections indicate a wide range of possible future climates. There are two main reasons for this:

• We do not know precisely how greenhouse gas concentrations will vary in future. Due to demographic, economic and technological factors, a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios are possible for the 21st century.
• The climate system is so complex that it is not possible for models to predict the exact state of the Earth’s climate several decades into the future.

Scientists use a range of different independent climate models and emission scenarios to estimate future climate. From the spread of these model projections, they can identify the changes that are likely to occur, and those that are less certain.

Climate models are constantly being improved with higher resolution and inclusion of more climate system processes, leading to greater confidence in climate projections.